Nigeria’s real market isn’t 200 million — and that’s its strength
In a sharp, data-driven reflection, Lumi Mustapha challenges one of Nigeria’s most persistent economic assumptions — that the country’s population automatically translates into a 200-million-person consumer market. Drawing insights from NIN, BVN, GSM, and broadband penetration data, he argues that only about 30 million Nigerians are truly income-active and digitally connected. Far from being a crisis, this reality, he says, is an opportunity to build smarter, more resilient “Camel economies” — grounded in real revenue, sustainable growth, and market precision rather than inflated expectations.
“Nigeria doesn’t have 200 million consumers.
It has about 30 million reachable, income-active, connected people — and that’s not a crisis.
For years, we’ve priced startups, fiscal policy, and development strategies on an imaginary 200-million-person market.
But the real data — NIN, GSM, BVN, and broadband penetration — all converge around 110–135 million identifiable Nigerians, with only 25–35 million holding meaningful digital spending power.
That smaller, verified base isn’t a weakness.
It’s the foundation for building smarter.
Once you understand the real market, you stop chasing scale for its own sake and start building for sustainability — what I call Camel economics.
Camels, unlike unicorns, don’t depend on endless capital injections.
They survive volatility by growing on real revenue, stable unit economics, and disciplined cost structures.
And that discipline begins with knowing the true size and depth of your market.
When your TAM is inflated, you build for fantasy.
When your TAM is real, you build for longevity.
This logic extends beyond startups — it’s the same logic Africa’s broader development model needs.
The continent doesn’t need growth strategies built on hypothetical scale.
It needs Camel economies — smaller but profitable domestic markets, networked through trade, diaspora capital, and regional interoperability.
Understanding the real market isn’t pessimism.
It’s precision — and precision is what turns emerging markets into investable markets”.
For [those] who want the full analysis, data table, and methodology — including how we derived the 110–135m estimate — you can read the complete LumiBrief [The Population Illusion 2.0 –
Why Nigeria’s Real Market Is 30 Million People — And That’s Not a Problem] here.
It expands on how population miscount → inflated TAM → distorted capital allocation, and how correcting that logic aligns with the Camel Thesis — Africa’s real path to sustainable, investable growth”.
©Lumi Mustapha x LinkedIn